OTTAWA — As Unifor negotiates a new contract with the Detroit 3 automakers, automotive industry experts in Canada told WardsAuto they admire the union’s diplomatic approach, but wonder if automakers will stick to their production investment commitments in the long run.
Unifor is taking a pattern bargaining strategy for talks with the Detroit 3. Over the past two months, the union focused on negotiations with Ford, and pushed a win-win vision of a contented workforce underpinning solid investments in a stable industry, which it said would give automakers options in an unstable trading environment. The strategy resulted in a “strong agreement,” per Unifor National President Lana Payne, which included investment commitments from Ford and was ratified by 74% of union members.
Now, Payne and her experienced bargaining teams are seeking to persuade GM and Stellantis that generous pay and conditions should be hitched to dependable commitments to reopen mothballed plants, such as at Ingersoll and Brampton, both in southern Ontario.
But with the GM talks starting August 10 amid an intensifying trade war between the U.S. and Canada, success cannot be guaranteed.
Can investment promises stick?
Greig Mordue, associate professor at the W Booth School of Engineering Practice and Technology at McMaster University in Hamilton, and a former general manager of Toyota Canada, said the Detroit 3 have an incentive to offer competitive wage packages to aid recruitment.
He noted that in the past the Canadian auto sector has paid better salaries than many other manufacturing industries. However, while automakers have benefited from being the best employer in town, with today’s lower auto production levels, the Ontario labor market is looser than before.
Moreover, he was skeptical that the upcoming talks will see GM and Stellantis deliver rock solid pledges on investment and jobs.
“I think the best thing they’ll say is, they will make their best efforts to make best efforts,” Mordue said, noting the lack of progress to reopen Stellantis’ assembly plant in Brampton and GM’s CAMI plant in Ingersoll.
Mordue warned that if the union wants to see progress during this industrial round on restarting production, it needs to be careful not to overplay its hand or push too hard.
“If they do, they might hear a message they don't want to hear,” Mordue said. “GM can push back and say, ‘Given this, CAMI will not reopen’ and Stellantis can say, ‘Brampton will not reopen.’ As long as Stellantis and GM have not formally declared the closure, Unifor has reason to hope. It's a delicate position.”
And while Ford pushes forward with plans to make Super Duty pickups at Oakville, Mordue stressed how the company has overcapacity in the U.S. and could move manufacturing if trade policies change or markets shift.
“Ford will say, ‘We have good intentions and a memorandum of understanding to produce (at a) certain level,’ but any number of things can occur and Ford can abandon those plans in a heartbeat,” Mordue said. “The reality is, production investment decisions are a management right.”
In his view, a clear decision on the future of the suspended plants would bring benefits, even if plants are closed for good, which Mordue thinks is possible.
While that will disappoint some workers in Ingersoll and Brampton, “GM and Stellantis need to fish or cut bait,” Mordue said. “They have thousands of people in ‘Never Never Land’ who still live in hope against hope they will be called back to CAMI or Brampton. Their lives have been suspended for years.”
Moreover, other manufacturers in these districts, especially those outside the auto sector, may be more inclined to hire these workers, given that at present, should an assembly plant be reopened, these employees “will give them five seconds of notice because they want to go back to their CAD$45 an hour jobs.”
Unifor’s diplomacy
Indeed, another expert, Ross McKenzie, former managing director of the Waterloo Centre for Automotive Research, anticipates these GM and Stellantis plants would ultimately reopen.
He stressed how GM has retained production at its Oshawa, Ontario, facility with Silverado models, and how the plant has provided additional capacity for pickup trucks.
The GM Ingersoll CAMI plant was particularly likely to be reopened, in his view, given its cutting-edge technology and the fact that demand for EVs in urban areas is growing in Europe. He said "that's not going to go away” in North America either.
McKenzie argues built-in advantages for Detroit 3 manufacturers operating in Canada will remain, regardless of White House trade policy shifts.
“We have an educated workforce; we have a low employee turnover,” he said. “People go to work for a company here and they stay. It makes a workforce more qualified; it lowers human resources costs.”
Unifor is astute enough to connect these benefits and the risk of mothballed plants becoming stranded assets in negotiations, he said.
“The more uncertainty the companies face [in U.S. government policy], the more they need not only a Plan B but Plans C, D and E as well. Unifor has the ability to offer the D3 certainty,” McKenzie said.
As for the union strategy, McKenzie also praised its low-profile approach.
“It behooves those in the union to do as much as they can behind closed doors, to stay out of the limelight and get the best deal it can,” he said. “In today’s digital, continuous news cycle environment, you never know how it goes if you start negotiating through the media.”
Detroit 3 seek profitability
J.D. Power Canada Director of OEM Solutions Robert Karwel said he expects Canada’s tradition of pattern bargaining to strike automotive labor deals would significantly influence this year’s outcomes.
“So yes, similar deals will be sought and expected from the other players,” Karwel said.
However, with the Canadian market becoming more competitive with new EV entrants from China, he predicted “more intense discussion with some of the OEMs on product allocations and job security” were likely.
But like Mordue, Karwel stressed manufacturers would keep a close eye on profitability during negotiations — including in the Canadian market, whose importance is being highlighted by Unifor.
“So, it’s reasonable to assume that the profitability of any new/future and incoming product will play into negotiation,” Karwel said.
He noted that J.D. Power data found the average price of a new vehicle in Canada for the first half of 2026 was just shy of $50,000 Canadian dollars. That’s a 1.5% higher price than the same time last year. Meanwhile, manufacturer incentives are up and dealer profitability is down, indicating it will take more work to grow sales this year.
That uncertainty, said Karwel, would be intensified by any plans the federal government may have to attract new entrant assembly capacity into Canada: “That could negatively impact the current OEMs who produce in Canada, with new lower-priced products, specifically EVs, offering competition.”
However, Karwel noted plants in Ontario, such as GM’s Oshawa and Ingersoll plants, have received awards from J.D. Power for vehicle assembly quality.
“Canada remains a great place to build automobiles,” Karwel said.
