The soaring cost of fuel is the biggest wild card impacting used-car pricing heading into 2027, according to Cox Automotive economists, in an update to the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index through the third quarter of 2026.
“When gas prices rise, sentiment falls, and vice versa,” said Mark Strand, Cox Automotive deputy chief economist, referring to consumer sentiment, in an online presentation Oct. 7. The wholesale, used-car auction firm Manheim is a Cox Automotive company.
On Oct. 7, AAA reported that the national average price per gallon for regular gas was $4.36, up nearly 40% compared to a year ago. Meanwhile, diesel hit a record-high $6.52 per gallon on Sept. 22, AAA said.
A drop in gas prices could support continued demand, and also used-vehicle prices, Strand explained. But if high prices remain, or get worse, that could further undermine consumer confidence and therefore demand, he said.
“I would call it not just gas prices but energy — gasoline, of course, but also diesel,” Strand said in a follow-up phone interview with WardsAuto.
“Diesel is used to haul every kind of good to the shelves, even dealers transporting vehicles,” Strand said. “Plus, there’s home heating oil, especially in the Northeast. When oil prices started going up, the Northeast was one of the slowest regions economically. Someone’s heating oil bill could go up $1,000 or $2,000,” he added.
The Manheim Index for September was 205.9, down 0.6% vs. 207 in September 2025. It was the first time this year the Manheim Index was down compared with the same month a year ago, and only the second time that’s happened in almost two years.
The Manheim Index is a single measure designed to track used-vehicle wholesale price changes, weighted for a changing mix of product segments and mileage, and seasonally adjusted. The index is calculated relative to a starting point, where January 1997 equals 100.
Values and demand strengthen for fuel-efficient models
High gas prices are a driver for the recent decline in the index overall, mainly leading to price declines for used trucks and SUVs, but high gas prices also increase demand for more fuel-efficient vehicles, Cox Automotive said.
“Fuel economy is showing up in wholesale values,” said Jonathan Gregory, senior director, Economic and Industry Insights for Cox Automotive, in the webinar.
Since January, non-electric used vehicles — a category that includes conventional gas-electric hybrids — rated at 40-plus mpg saw their wholesale values increase 9.9%, Gregory said. Non-EVs that got 35 to 39 mpg went up 3.7% year to date, he said.
At the same time, values for non-EVs that got less than 15 mpg fell 15% and those from 15 to 19 mpg fell 8.8%, with their declines dragging the Manheim Index down overall.
“The efficiency premium isn’t just an EV story. Hybrids and other high-mileage vehicles are gaining value while the rest of the market depreciates, Gregory said.
“The low-MPG buckets are still dominated by full-size pickups and large SUVs,” he added.
