Used-vehicle prices remained higher than a year ago, even though some of the steam has come out of a recent streak of price increases at dealer-only, wholesale auto auctions, according to the latest Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index.
From a new-car dealer perspective, this has kept wholesale prices high for used vehicles retailed at dealerships, but the trend is moving in the right direction. The September 2025 Manheim Index is 207, up 2% vs. September 2025, according to a webinar on Oct. 7.
“2025 has clearly resulted in a much stronger economy and auto market than initially feared through the first three quarters,” said Jonathan Smoke, chief economist for Cox Automotive, in the webinar. The Manheim auto auction firm is a Cox Automotive company.
Car prices rising
The Manheim Index is a single measure designed to track used-vehicle wholesale price changes, weighted for a changing mix of product segments and mileage. The index is seasonally adjusted and is calculated relative to a starting point, where January 1997 equals 100.
The September Manheim Index corresponded to an average used-vehicle value of $18,937 at auction.
The Manheim Index has been higher for six consecutive months compared to the same month a year ago, and for 10 out of the last 12 months. However, the rate of increase has been slowing in recent months compared with increases in the Manheim Index, of as much as 6.3% in June 2025.
Tailwinds ahead for the industry
The rise this year in the Manheim index followed 26 consecutive months of declines, from a peak of 257.7 in January 2022, which was driven by short supply and high-demand.
For 2026, Cox Automotive is forecasting “more tailwinds than headwinds,” said Smoke. Favorable tailwinds include lower taxes, lower interest rates, and – from the point of view of automakers, dealers, and auto lenders – less regulation.
Unfavorable headwinds include affordability, general economic worries and tariffs. According to Cox Automotive, tariffs could be responsible for new-vehicle price increases of 4% to 6% next year, and as much as 8%, depending on how much of the tariff costs are passed along to consumers.
Higher prices tend to drive shoppers to switch to the used car market, which in turn, drives up used-vehicle prices, Smoke said. Overall, Smoke said the auto retail industry is still making up for pent-up demand from the Great Recession, the COVID-19 pandemic and a slow recovery in auto production, and that pent-up demand continues to support auto sales.
“Anemic hiring will limit vehicle demand but the market is also constrained by supply and supported by substantial pent-up demand from nearly five years of constrained new-vehicle production,” he said in the webinar.
