Cox Automotive has slightly raised its 2026 U.S. new-car sales forecast to 16.1 million, since well-heeled new-car buyers don’t seem deterred — so far — despite a familiar list of threats including high gas prices, near-record transaction prices, and high interest rates.
“There’s a lot that looks pretty good and we should happy about,” such as low unemployment, a higher level of job creation in 2026 than 2025, and a generally surging stock market, said Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist for Cox Automotive.
The forecast change highlighted a Cox Automotive webinar Sept. 17, hosted by the American International Automobile Dealers Association, as part of its regularly scheduled AutoTalk series of industry briefings.
During the webinar, Chesbrough said that the good news for the vehicle market “is that it’s a much wealthier new-vehicle buyer today than previously.”
Year-to-date in 2026, buyers with annual income over $150,000 accounted for 43% of new-car sales, versus 29% in 2020, Chesbrough said. Meanwhile, buyers with income below $100,000 accounted for 36% of new-car sales in 2026 year to date, versus 50% in 2020.
Chesbrough said Cox Automotive is “cautiously optimistic” about the higher sales forecast. The new, higher estimate replaces the firm’s prior forecast for 2026 of 15.8 million, which dates back to late 2025.
The updated, new-car sales estimate of 16.1 million in 2026 would be down 1.2%, from 16.3 million in 2025. The previous Cox Automotive forecast of 15.8 million, updated as of June 2026, would have been down 2.9%.
Chesbrough also acknowledged that consumer spending accounts for 70% of all U.S. economic spending and there’s a real danger that consumers — even some wealthy ones — could reach a point where they start to significantly curb their spending.
“There is concern recession fears are rising,” Chesbrough said.
