Credit reporting bureau TransUnion expects auto finance delinquencies to be very slightly higher, if not roughly flat, at year-end 2026 vs. the present day.
“We are still working on a credit cycle from the pandemic,” which had a big effect on delinquencies, Michele Raneri, vice president and head of U.S. research and consulting at TransUnion, told WardsAuto in a phone interview.
The net effect for 2026: Delinquencies in auto loans and leases remain high, but the rate of increase year-over-year has slowed, Raneri said, citing the annual TransUnion Consumer Credit Forecast, published Dec. 10.
By the numbers
Higher delinquencies today represent a rebound from earlier lows, she said. Cash stimulus checks paid directly to consumers, moratoriums on mortgage foreclosures and auto repossessions, and forgiveness for student loans kept delinquencies lower, but now those advantages are absent, Raneri said.
Specifically, Chicago-based TransUnion predicts an auto delinquency rate of 1.54% at year-end 2026, versus an estimated 1.51% at year-end 2025, an increase of just 3 basis points. That’s for “serious” delinquencies, which TransUnion defines as 60 days or more past due.
Expectations
A year ago, TransUnion predicted an auto delinquency rate of 1.38% at year-end 2025 for 60-plus days, down from 1.45% a year earlier. Delinquencies increased instead, but not by much.
If auto delinquencies can remain flat in 2026 vs. 2025, it could be a sign that U.S. households are putting the economic effects of the pandemic, good or bad, in the rearview mirror, Raneri said.
“They’re probably out of that stimulus money. They’ve done their fear-of-missing-out travel,” she said. “Probably in the last year or two, they have come to grips with the fact that what they can afford is what they earn.”
