Automakers are navigating a regulatory environment defined by uncertainty in 2026.

“A shifting policy landscape is a new normal,” said Jonathan Smoke, executive vice president and chief strategy officer at Cox Automotive, in a call discussing expectations for the 2026 market.

Several federal rules are delayed, under review or otherwise in flux. And according to industry experts, that volatility creates real financial risk and complicates long-term investment decisions.

“If you make the wrong bet, you waste a lot of capital,” said Collin Shaw, president of the Motor and Equipment Manufacturers Association’s OEM suppliers division.

However, despite the uncertainty, industry experts agreed three regulatory topics — the Trump administration’s evolving policies on trade, emissions and safety standards — top the list of U.S. storylines to watch in 2026.

1. Trade policy: What will happen with tariffs, and to the USMCA?

The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement is officially up for a joint review this year, with the three countries expected to begin talks July 1. While President Trump has said that the trade deal is “irrelevant” to the United States, industry experts stress that USMCA is critical to the North American supply chain.

“USMCA is priority one, two and three” for MEMA in 2026, Shaw said, reflecting a sentiment largely shared across the industry.

Automakers and suppliers have spent years aligning production and sourcing around the agreement, said Shea Burns, a partner in the automotive and industrial practice at AlixPartners, and any changes to the deal could require costly adjustments.

In addition, the administration’s ever shifting tariff policy continues to complicate automaker planning.

“If tariffs were going to be permanent, [automakers] could invest even more in bringing back manufacturing to the U.S.,” said Burns. But the uncertainty means the industry is hesitant to spend, he said.

2. Emissions standards: How deep will rollbacks and fuel economy rule changes go?

Last year, the Trump administration upended Biden-era standards on emissions and electric vehicles, and the regulatory rollback is expected to continue.

“We know the direction they’re going,” Burns said, adding that the bigger question is whether the administration’s changes will stand over time.

The Environmental Protection Agency may soon finalize a rule proposed in August that would eliminate vehicle tailpipe emissions requirements. The rule would also rescind a 2009 ruling declaring that carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases threaten public health, a finding that serves as the legal foundation for many pollution regulations.

Legal challenges concerning the proposal have slowed the regulatory process, but a revocation of the “endangerment finding” would make it more difficult for future administrations to enact emissions standards.

“The administration does seem to be trying to attack [standards] from multiple points,” Burns said, suggesting a broader effort to prevent future administrations from reinstating certain regulations.

The EPA is also aiming to delay implementation of Biden-era emissions rules, according to a December op-ed by Aaron Szabo, assistant administrator for the EPA’s Office of Air and Radiation. The emissions standards for light- and medium-duty vehicles would have become effective with model year 2027. Szabo said that the EPA will propose a two-year delay, while reworking the emissions rules for model year 2029 and forward — a move that would apply only if emissions standards are not eliminated altogether.

In December, President Trump announced a “reset” of the Biden-era Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards, which would have required automakers achieve average fuel economy of 50.4 miles per gallon by 2031. Instead, the proposed rule from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration calls for an industry-wide fleet average of approximately 49 mpg for model year 2026 passenger cars and light trucks, with incremental improvements through 2031.

For suppliers that invested heavily under prior regulations, new uncertainty triggers financial consequences. Regulatory shifts create stranded capital, and suppliers “are going to need time to redeploy assets,” said Shaw. “That’s not something that happens overnight,” he said.

3. Safety standards: How will evolving technology affect vehicle safety assessments?

Federal safety rules are also being updated in 2026, particularly concerning automated driving systems.

In January, the NHTSA began soliciting comments on potential requirements within the federal safety standards “that no longer serve a functional safety purpose” and “act as barriers to the deployment of new technologies,” according to a request published in the Federal Register.

Outside the federal docket, safety ratings such as those from the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety are shaping vehicle design before regulations are solidified.

“While regulatory action has been initiated to require systems that meet some of the same criteria our [front crash prevention] tests are pushing for, movement has been slow and is currently stalled,” Jessica Jermakian, senior vice president of vehicle research at IIHS, said in an email. She added that IIHS’s updated front crash prevention tests will factor into its 2026 safety awards, which automakers regularly include in their marketing.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration postponed implementation of Biden-era updates to NHTSA’s New Car Assessment Program last September. The changes, which would have added crashworthiness pedestrian protection assessments and expanded automatic emergency braking requirements for model year 2026 vehicles, will now take effect with model year 2027.