Despite the EV enthusiasm, Xavier Mosquet, senior partner with Boston Consulting Group, says a new study suggests battery costs likely will limit widespread adoption of EVs throughout the decade.
The cost target used by many auto makers of $250 per kilowatt hour is unlikely to be achieved unless there is a major breakthrough in technology that increases the energy a battery can store without boosting material and manufacturing costs, he says.
“We see substantial challenges to achieving this goal by 2020,” Mosquet tells the Detroit-based Automotive Press Assn.
“For years, people have been saying that one of the keys to reducing our dependency on fossil fuels is the electrification of the vehicle fleet,” he says. “The reality is electric car batteries are too expensive and too technologically limited for this to happen in the foreseeable future.”
Consumer perceptions about limited range, battery recharging and cheap oil could also limit EV acceptance in the short term, Mosquet says.
By 2020, though, his firm estimates 26% of new cars sold in developed markets will be EVs, PHEVs or variants.