Robust Q2 Output Planned

Based on the industry’s first crack at second-quarter production scheduling, 73,081 cars and trucks will roll off the lines in the U.S., Canada and Mexico on each of an average of 64 work days in April-June.

That’s not quite as fast as the 75,023 units built daily in Q2 2015, when there were 62 work days, but it is faster than January-March’s 71,976-a-day rate over 62 work days. In Q1 2015, output averaged 71,956 units on each of 61 work days.

Plans call for completion of 4,677,200 vehicles in April-June, including a WardsAuto Ford forecast, up 4.8% from the estimated 4,462,500 cars and trucks built in the first quarter. That’s just 0.6% ahead of the 4,651,400 units turned out in the second quarter a year ago.

While truck output again is set to surpass that of the prior year, Q2’s 2.0% volume increase is less than the 5.2% year-over-year gain in Q1. Second-quarter car plans show only a 1.5% deficit compared with like-2015 vs. a 3.5% first-quarter decline.

Among high-volume producers, Ford and General Motors are expected to out-build year-ago in the second quarter by 3.7% and 3.5%, respectively, with Ford trucks forecast for an 11.8% gain vs. a 2.1% spike for GM trucks.

On the other hand, GM plans call for a 6.3% increase in second-quarter car production, while Ford is seen cutting back by 13.2%.

At the same time, Honda, Nissan and Toyota have set output gains of 2.9%, 2.2% and 0.3%, respectively, with Nissan and Toyota trimming truck assemblies slightly while boosting car production. Honda is set to increase both car and light-truck output.

The largest year-on-year gain is forecast by WardsAuto for low-volume EV maker Tesla, which  shows a near doubling of volume to 24,100 units in April-June from 12,600 in like-2015 and 21,700 vehicles in the first quarter.

Tesla’s Q2 plans include some 10,400 units of its all-new Model X CUV that began regular production in the first quarter after a slow Q4 2015 start due to supplier problems in getting the gull-wing rear side doors to operate properly.

Industry vehicle output now is slated to reach 9,139,700 cars and trucks in the first half of 2016, a 1.1% increase over the 9,040,100 units turned out in like-2015, with the FCA, Ford, GM triumvirate accounting for 51.7% of the tally, slightly ahead of prior-year’s 51.4%.

Transplants, at 46.4% vs. 46.1%, also will take a larger bite of production this year, while dedicated medium- and heavy-duty truck makers, suffering a dearth of orders, trail like-2015 with a 1.9% share vs. 2.4%.

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