Q4 Output Steady, Record Year Seen

Based on automakers’ current output plans through December, vehicle production in Canada, Mexico and the U.S. combined will rise to an all-time high in 2016, 1.5% ahead of 2015’s benchmark.

Although none of the countries will individually set a production record this year, their combined output is, barring changes, slated to reach 18,217,000 units, edging past prior year’s 17,954,000 assemblies to claim the top spot.

Behind the robust 2016 finish is a 4.4% increase in North American truck production, powered by record light-duty output, to 11,420,600 units vs. 10,935,100 in 2015.

Production of cars, on the other hand, is set to fall 3.2% short of last year, 6,796,400 vs. 7,018,900 units.

Although most automakers will end the year on a positive note, three likely will not match their 2015 North American production levels: Fiat Chrysler, down 6.8%; Mazda, off 13.1% and Volkswagen, trailing by 5.7%.

In addition, output from the dedicated medium- and heavy-duty truck makers is slated to end the year 16.3% less than in 2015.

Contract bargaining at FCA, Ford and General Motors in Canada, where contracts expire in September and where Unifor union members have voted overwhelmingly in favor of strike action if negotiations bog down, could dampen output plans. While there haven’t been any auto contract strikes in Canada in 20 years, the possibility can’t be ruled out.

Also, with four months left to go, output plans are subject to revision, depending on changes in the market, and Ford’s present Q4 tally is a WardsAuto forecast as the automaker has yet to unveil its official October-December slate.

Still, fourth-quarter production alone is slated at 4,458,200 units, just 27,000 more than like-2015’s 4,431,200 assemblies, with trucks ahead 0.8% and cars up 0.3%.

To make the Q4 plan a reality, workers will have to build 76,470 vehicles on each of an average of 58 work days in 2016, up from the 75,618 built on each of 58 days a year earlier.

The October-December plan follows a revised third-quarter slate calling for production of 4,522,500 cars and trucks, an 8,600-unit shortfall from  a month earlier, but still 0.9% more than the 4,482,700 built a year ago.

However, the modest quarterly decline includes a significant production shift of 48,200 units from July to September, the latter benefiting from an additional 7,200 vehicles as well.

Estimated August output is expected to fall 15,800 units short of plan.

Among other changes is an 18,100-unit cut in third-quarter truck assemblies, to 2,832,800 vehicles, while car output is up by 9,500 units.

Still, Q3 car production trails that of the prior year by 0.4%, while trucks are ahead 1.7%.   

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