North American Auto Output Takes Hit

A combination of economic uncertainty and the apparent inability of several transplants to meet previously slated fourth-quarter overtime schedules have North American auto makers slashing 196,000 vehicles from their 2011 production plans.

The revised slate, with Ford yet to report, still has the industry on course to a 3-year high. But total 2011 production now is headed for 13,472,700 vehicles, rather than the 13.7 million-plus penciled in a month ago.

Still, that marks a 10.9% gain from 2010’s 12,153,600 completions and is more than 4.7 million units ahead of the 8,760,965 turned out in 2009 amid the global economic crisis.

Related document: North America Production Schedule Q4

More than half of the 196,000-unit cutback already has taken place, with preliminary third-quarter results coming in 131,000 units below what had been expected a month ago. That includes a final August tally that is 64,700 units lower than earlier estimates and a preliminary September shortfall totaling 57,200 vehicles.

Honda, Toyota and Volkswagen all fell short of their production targets in August-September, as the Japanese transplants continued their struggles back to full production and VW opted for a slower, more quality-focused launch of its new midsize Passat sedan at its all-new plant in Tennessee.

VW taking cautious approach to all-new Passat launch.

Similar reasons are behind the 65,000-unit reduction in the industry’s Q4 roster.

While virtually all Japanese transplant facilities, except those making the Honda Civic, now are back to full production, ambitious overtime schedules planned for Q4 as part of the effort to recoup as much of the tsunami-induced losses as possible have been cut back.

The Detroit Three now are slated to build 7,685,200 cars and trucks in 2011, a 14.6% increase over 2010, giving them a 57.0% production share, up from prior-year’s 55.2%.

Transplants have 5,477,100 assemblies on tap, a 4.5% year-over-year gain, netting them a 40.7% share compared with 2010’s 43.1%.

Dedicated medium- and heavy-duty truck makers have 310,300 units booked for completion this year, some 50.6% ahead of last year. That accounts for 2.3% of 2011 industry output, compared with 1.7% a year ago.

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