As the global auto industry runs full-bore toward battery-electric vehicles and phases out internal-combustion engines, one benefit could be a “BEV boost” in global auto production and sales.
Theoretically, having more battery-electric vehicles available could temporarily boost demand for both BEVs and ICE vehicles, says Jeff Schuster, president-Americas Operations and Global Vehicle Forecasts for LMC Automotive.
“There’s the possibility we get a BEV boost, and I think that could come from two factors,” Schuster (pictured, below left) says in a webinar hosted by LMC Automotive and parent company GlobalData.
“One is consumers turning in their vehicle sooner than they would have otherwise, to move into an electrified vehicle,” he says. “The other side of that could be a consumer that sees their internal-combustion vehicle choice is no longer going to be in production. So, they want to rush out and get that vehicle, that newer version , before the vehicle goes away.”
Without putting specific volume numbers on the increase, Schuster estimates a time frame of roughly mid-2024 to the end of 2027 for the hypothetical “BEV boost.” From 2024 to 2027, LMC forecasts annual global light-vehicle production to increase to 100.3 million units, from 90.9 million.
In 2022, LMC expects global light-vehicle production of 82.3 million units. That’s up from 76.9 million in 2021, but still below 88.7 million in 2019.
For the rest of this year and next year, LMC expects global light-vehicle production to continue to be limited by the ongoing shortage of computer chips and other parts, geopolitical conflict, labor shortages, inflation and the potential return of COVID-19 lockdowns in some markets.
