NOVI, MI – There is a case to be made that used battery-electric vehicle sales could catch up to new EV sales by 2026 depending on a few market dynamics and whether Congress eliminates the federal tax credits supporting new EV sales. That's according to Jimmy Douglas, founder and CEO of Plug, an online wholesale marketplace that exclusively deals in used EVs.

“There’s about 10 million EVs coming either through trade‑ins or off‑lease over the next five years,” Douglas says at the recent AutoTech conference here. The used-EV market is growing “but still constrained by the small EV pool pre-2021. Large-scale supply will take some time as the new-EV fleet matures,” he says.

As reported in WardsAuto, dealers have experienced a surge in used-EV sales, growing 63% in 2024. Analysts forecast continued growth to another 57% in 2025, according to Recurrent, which provides data-backed research and analytics focused on used EVs. This forecast puts used EV volume on pace to reach 500,000–550,000 units in 2025, based on the 350,000 sold in 2024.

At the same time, sales growth of new EVs has slowed and will likely slow further later this year and into 2026 if Congress rolls back the $7,500 tax credit supporting new- and used-EV sales that can be used as all or part of a down payment.

New BEV sales in 2024 were approximately 1.2 million units, representing 8% of 15.5 million total new-car sales, according to Cox Automotive. Growth only ticked up slightly in 2024, to 8.1% of new-car sales from 7.3% in 2023. Most analysts expect another year of single-digit sales growth in 2025 due to high interest rates, charging concerns and price sensitivity.

“There’s still going to be demand for EVs, but buyers are going to look for the best values, and increasingly that is going to be in the used market,” says Douglas.

Used BEVs Play to Affordability

Douglas notes that European adoption of new EVs is about double that of the U.S. due to affordability. Indeed, Europe has numerous EVs priced under €40,000 (just under $46,000).
“The U.S. needs to increase offerings of EVs that have both utility and affordability,” says Douglas. “But as comfort with the idea of a used EV increases, that affordability is going to be increasingly found in the used market.”

The opportunity for a surge in used EV sales is a big one for dealers. Only 2% of dealers currently participate in the used EV market, with a small fraction selling one-third of all used BEVs, he says.

Douglas says dealers who want in on the increasing demand for used EVs must invest in sales infrastructure:

• Training sales teams to knowledgeably discuss battery life and warranty coverage, as well as home charging solutions.
• Explore ”second-life leasing,” whereby customers lease used EVs coming off their first 2- or 3-year lease.
• Consider diversifying used-EV selection beyond the brand offered by their new-car franchise. In other words, be willing to buy EVs of other brands at auction, or take them as trade-ins.

Douglas notes that about 450 dealers have taken part in Plug’s used-EV auctions. The two leading brands being snapped up are Tesla and Rivian. “What we are witnessing is that franchise dealers are starting to stock large numbers of vehicles that are EVs that don’t represent their franchise name," he says.

What are best practices that the Plug CEO sees among dealers successfully selling used EVs? “It’s dealers who sell them fast,” says Douglas. “The dealers selling EVs fast are also selling them often, so they know exactly how to buy them.”