President Trump is finalizing the tariffs on U.S. trading partners, including close neighbors Mexico and Canada. For UAW President Shawn Fain, the new tariffs hopefully spell the end of free trade and a renaissance of union employment.

Fain’s hopes, though, are far from guaranteed to materialize.

Fain – often a sharp critic of many of Trump’s policies, and who stood next to both President Biden and Trump opponent Kamala Harris last year – says the Trump Admin.’s announcement of major tariffs on passenger cars and trucks entering the U.S. market is an opening to bringing potentially tens of thousands of UAW jobs back to America.

In 1990, the UAW had approximately 950,000 active members. Today, that number is 375,161.

Fain is now cheerleading Trump, despite Trump’s chief advisor on downsizing government and regulating the auto industry is the vehemently anti-union Tesla Motors CEO Elon Musk. Trump and Musk are also trying to obliterate the rights of federal workers to be organized into unions, dismantle the National Labor Relations Board and gut the Occupational Safety and Health Administration, which protects treatment and health of workers. The administration’s opposition to a rise in minimum wage, too, would seem to be at odds with Fain’s pro-worker positions.

Trump, with a track record for threatening opponents of his agenda and backing down later when he gets at least part of what he wants, is calling the tariffs “permanent.” According to The Wall Street Journal, he has warned automakers to not pass on tariff costs to consumers by way of higher sticker prices or they will face harsh regulatory retribution from NHTSA and the Energy Dept.

After the WSJ report, Trump backtracked saying that he doesn’t care if automakers raise prices, because he believes vehicles with the lowest tariffs – because they are made in the U.S. with predominantly U.S.-sourced parts – will sell better. But that comment does not take into account that many of the most affordable new vehicles are manufactured outside the U.S.

If the threat holds, automakers may be forced to relocate supply chains and manufacturing at the cost of billions of dollars to their profitability and a reset of the entire industry that will drag down shareholder value.

According to Fain, “This (Trump’s tariff policy) is a long-overdue shift away from a harmful economic framework that has devastated the working class and driven a race to the bottom across borders in the auto industry. It signals a return to policies that prioritize the workers who build this country – rather than the greed of ruthless corporations.” Fain also says he met with officials from the Trump Admin. before the president’s announcement.

“We applaud the Trump administration for stepping up to end the free trade disaster that has devastated working class communities for decades,” says Fain, whose attacks on the existing network of trade agreements is popular with UAW members regardless of which way they might lean politically. Union members have long complained that unfair trade practices take advantage of underpaid workers in other countries, particularly Mexico.

But Fain is also calling for other changes at odds with the policies of the Trump Admin.

“Ending the race to the bottom also means securing union rights for autoworkers everywhere with a strong NLRB, a decent retirement with Social Security benefits protected, healthcare for all workers including through Medicare and Medicaid, and dignity on and off the job,” Fain’s statement on trade policy notes.

“These tariffs are a major step in the right direction for autoworkers and blue-collar communities across the country, and it is now on the automakers, from the Big Three to Volkswagen and beyond, to bring back good union jobs to the U.S.”  notes Fain, who repeatedly called Trump, “a scab,” during last year’s campaign.

The UAW’s opposition to what became known as NAFTA stretches all the way back Reagan Admin. in the 1980s when the discussions about a new trade deal with Mexico and Canada began picking up steam.  A significant part of the impetus for NAFTA came from General Motors and other Detroit companies, which argued that the operating costs in Mexico in particular would make it easier for them to counter competition from Asian automakers who were paying lower wages.

Also, it was a way of balancing cost and risk with union wages that get reset higher every three years, and the escalating costs of providing healthcare in the U.S., which, unlike Mexico and Canada, does not have regulated universal healthcare.

The erasure of trade barriers over the years, from NAFTA to Trump’s own United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) signed in his first term, has led to the creation of a highly integrated, continent-wide supply network for vehicles and components, according to analysts and economists.

Economist Arthur Laffer, who received a Presidential Medal of Freedom from Trump describes the USMCA as a “cornerstone” of Trump’s first term, emphasizing its role in stabilizing supply chains and strengthening the U.S. auto industry. He noted that the agreement has “quickly become a dominant feature of North American trade policy, fostering economic growth, stabilizing supply chains and strengthening the U.S. auto industry.”

Laffer’s analysis underscores the USMCA’s impact on creating a highly integrated supply chain across North America, built upon the rules established by the trade agreement.

The UAW lost a major battle when Congress approved NAFTA in November 1993. While then- Republican Speaker Newt Gingrich delivered the key votes that put NAFTA over the top, many union members have never forgiven then-President Bill Clinton for signing the big trade deal, according to Brian Rothenberg, former UAW communications director, who is now a political consultant in Columbus, OH.

Trump says the objective of the tariffs is to force automakers and suppliers to build or rebuild plants in the U.S.

The Trump policy, however, will strand auto companies’ capital in Canada and Mexico at the same time they are forced to invest billions stateside while at the same time paying billions in tariffs.

“The UAW is in active negotiations with Trump Admin. about their plans,” the UAW says in its statement. “We look forward to working with the White House to shape the auto tariffs to benefit the working class.”

Fain notes Detroit’s three automakers have closed 65 different factories in the past quarter century complaining that most of the jobs have moved to Mexico, where workers make a fraction, as little as $7 per hour, compared to the top wage of $38 per hour paid in unionized plants in the U.S. This argument, though, does not consider the far lower cost of living in Mexico or the far cheaper healthcare costs.

The factory closings and job losses, coupled with Trump’s promise to bring back manufacturing jobs, also is moving the political calculus. The UAW’s membership, once considered one of the pillars of the Democratic coalition has been gradually moving towards Republicans, and Rothenberg estimates as many as 40% of the union’s voters backed Trump in the past election, despite the union spending heavily to support Harris.

Many UAW members on the comment thread on the UAW website, however, note the tariffs could wind up hurting members by driving the prices of new vehicles, which could lead to fewer sales.

“This isn’t going to create jobs,” notes John Barge on the UAW website. “It will cause layoffs.”

Industry analysts estimate that these tariffs could lead to a reduction in sales ranging from 1.5 million to 3 million vehicles per year impacting both manufacturing profitability at automaker plants, as well as the cascading hit on suppliers.

The issues confronting automakers and supplier companies, as well as the UAW, are far more complex and interconnected than the simple idea that higher tariffs equal more U.S. jobs.