Even the best analysts can’t say how the traditionally busy summer auto retail market will evolve, but Cox Automotive’s Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index offers clues.
Mid-month data – on a mixed-, mileage- and seasonally adjusted basis – shows the Index fell to 205.9. That’s still 4.4% higher than the full month of May 2024.
The seasonal adjustment pulled the reading lower than raw trends suggested, as the market remained stronger than typical for this time of year, analysts say. On a non-adjusted basis, wholesale prices decreased 1.1% in the first half of May compared to April. Year over year, however, unadjusted prices were still 4.3% higher.
Analysts report the average move for the full month of May is typically a decline of 0.3 percentage points on non-adjusted values. To date this year’s May depreciation is stronger than usual, following very strong appreciation trends in April.
“April was a very strong month for wholesale price appreciation, but the gains decelerated each week over the course of the month, and that trend continued into early May,” says Jeremy Robb, senior director of economic and industry insights at Cox Automotive. “In the first two weeks of May, we’ve seen fairly normal depreciation trends on a weekly basis, as used retail supply remains constrained. However, some of the strength in the pace of used sales has backed off, and days’ supply is getting slightly better.”
As reported in WardsAuto, the evolving tariff changes that boosted new-car buying activity in March and April has waned. Analysts expect wholesale pricing trends to remain more normal through Q2.
3-Year-Old Index Shows Softer Slide
The Manheim Market Report (MMR) prices in the Three-Year-Old Index dropped 0.6% over the past two weeks. Analysts say that indicates slightly milder depreciation than the broader market. Historically, this segment typically declines 0.8% in early May. MMR Retention averaged 99.1% – slightly under valuation models – while retention was 0.4 percentage points lower than in the first half of May 2024.
The average daily sales conversion rate was 59.3%, up from 55.5% a year ago, but still slightly below the 59.9% recorded in the first half of May 2019, the MMR states.
Segment Performance: Luxury and SUV Values Stand Out
Nearly all major market segments posted year-over-year increases in May on a seasonally adjusted basisLuxury vehicles pulled ahead, up 6.6%, followed by SUVs at 5.5%. Midsize cars and trucks rose 2.3% and 0.5%, respectively. Compact cars were the exception, falling 1.2% versus last year.
Compared to April 2025, every segment declined:
- Compact cars: -1.9%
- Trucks: -1.7%
- SUVs: -1.0%
- Luxury: -0.7%
- Midsize cars: -0.5%
- Overall industry: -1.1%
Electric vehicles (EVs) saw a 2.0% year-over-year increase in May but dropped 2.0% month-over-month between April and May. In contrast, non-EVs were up 4.2% year over year and down 1.5% versus April.
Wholesale used-vehicle supply remained flat at 24 days as of May 15, unchanged from both the end of April and one day lower than May 2024. Supply levels are about one day below long-term seasonal averages for mid-May.
On the consumer front, sentiment data was mixed. The University of Michigan’s preliminary May automotive retail data fell 2.7% to 50.8, with both current conditions and expectations declining. Inflation expectations worsened: 1-year inflation forecasts jumped to 7.3% from 6.5%, and 5-year forecasts climbed to 4.6%.
