The Trump Admin. tariffs on imported vehicles could undercut the bargaining power of the UAW and hand Tesla CEO Elon Musk, an avowed foe of the union, more influence.

That’s according to a Cornell University research professor who has studied the automotive industry over the past two decades.

“The Trump Admin.’s announced automotive tariffs may seem a blessing for U.S. autoworkers, and many trade unionists welcome the end of free trade,” notes Professor Ian Greer. “UAW President Shawn Fain is campaigning for the Trump tariffs despite his misgivings about the president and the administration’s other policies.

“But tariffs undermine the stability and certainty required for new investment.”

That means tariffs could create new challenges for the UAW at the bargaining table, where in the most recent round of contract talks with Detroit 3 automakers, new investment was one of the union’s key demands.

“All union members are struggling right now. They need new investment. (But) investors must have stability,” Greer tells Wards.  “They do not know if tariffs are going to stay. How are companies going to plan?

As a result, “uncertainty (also) is a problem for the union (too). The union needs new products to ensure its members are gainfully employed.”

Greer says the tariffs threaten the profitability of the Detroit automakers, and that will make it harder for Detroit automakers to develop new products. “The union was successful during the 2023 contract negotiations because the companies were profitable,” Greer says.

The Ann Arbor-based Center for Automotive Research estimates the impact of potential tariffs on imported auto parts and light vehicles will cost U.S. automakers $107.9 billion annually.

The CAR analysis emphasizes the complexity of the auto industry’s parts-sourcing network.

“The modern automotive supply chain is both global and complex,” says K. Venkatesh Prasad, senior vice president of research and chief innovation officer at CAR. “Automakers and their suppliers are often multinational companies with facilities spread out across the world, making it difficult to discern how much of a vehicle is domestically produced.”

In addition, the Michigan-based Anderson Economic Group estimates any reduction in the profits of Detroit's unionized automakers could reduce annual profit sharing from $1,000 to $5,000 per worker.

Fain, in a recent online address, says the UAW does not intend to make politics about personalities or parties.

“We see politics as a negotiation,” he says. “You win what you have the power to fight for. I want to be very clear on this point: We are not aligning with the Trump Admin. We don’t align with any politician or president. We are negotiating with the Trump Admin.”

Says Fain: “Free trade has been a disaster for the working class. Here is how the free-trade scam works. The government gives a green light to companies to build their product wherever they can find the most exploited workers. Countries where desperate people will work for $3 an hour, where there are no labor laws and where there are no environmental regulations.”

The UAW remains staunchly opposed to imports.

“A lot of workers were traumatized by the movement of plants to Mexico. There is a visceral reaction to imported vehicles among union people,” Greer says, pointing to the signs at UAW headquarters in Detroit and at UAW locals around the country prohibiting anyone from parking a foreign-made vehicle on their property.

But tariffs are risky for unionized auto workers, too, says Greer.

“In the electric-vehicle segment, tariffs are a boon to fiercely anti-union Tesla, which will benefit from the disarray of competitors who need time to rethink production strategies and retool factories,” he says. “Any new automotive jobs will be overwhelmingly nonunion, and Republicans in state and federal governments will work to keep them that way.”

Tesla is currently the leader in BEVs in the U.S., and while some of its components are subject to tariffs, it is less exposed to Trump’s tariff regime than General Motors, Ford or Stellantis. But the Big 3 are the most serious competition for Tesla.

Tesla has no unionized employees and has a reputation as a ruthless employer that routinely fires employees for attempting to organize a union.