It could be the end of the decade or early in the 2030s, before annual U.S. light-vehicle sales climb back above 17 million for the first time since 2019, according to Michael Welch, CFO for Asbury Automotive Group.
“It's probably 2031. 2032. Again, it depends on when you think we get back to that high 16- to 17-million SAAR range,” Welch said, in a third-quarter earnings conference call, on Oct. 28. SAAR stands for Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, an estimate for what auto sales would be for a whole year, based on the current monthly sales rate.
Specifically, Welch was answering an auto analyst’s question about when Asbury, based in Duluth, Ga., expects its in-house F&I products provider, Total Care Auto, to achieve a corporate goal of contributing $5 per share in consolidated Asbury earnings. To put that in context, for all of 2025, Asbury estimates that the TCA contribution will be $1.93 per share.
A rising tide
Welch replied that a lot of factors will contribute to that goal. For instance, Asbury can and will add dealerships participating in Total Care Auto. But to reach that per-share contribution goal, Asbury estimates it also needs auto sales overall to climb back to the 17 million, pre-pandemic sales level.
“To get to the high-five EPS, we need the 17 million SAAR. You need that volume level. Now, you can also get there with future acquisitions and adding additional stores but you need a total volume level to drive the products going through the system,” Welch said.
Overall, Asbury reported net income of $147.1 million in the third quarter, an increase of 16% vs. a year ago. That was $7.52 earnings per diluted share, up 18% vs. a year ago.
Record performance
Asbury set quarterly records in the third quarter for revenue and gross profit. Revenue was $4.8 billion, up 13%. Gross profit was $803 billion, up 12%.
Contributing to the increase was Asbury’s acquisition effective July 2025 of the Herb Chambers Companies, a New England megadealer group based in Somerville, Mass., with 33 new-vehicle dealerships.
“Our acquisition of the Chambers Group has already had a positive impact on many of our operating metrics. And while it is still early in the integration process, I am pleased with how our teams are coming together,” said David Hult, Asbury president and CEO, in the conference call.
