First-quarter sales reports are flowing in and it is evident light-vehicle sales are running at a blistering pace. But it’s not clear whether the surge is being driven by the impending Trump Admin. 25% tariffs on vehicles imported from Mexico and Canada or a slew of other factors.
Data points to a big jump in the seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales for March, no doubt driven by the tariff talk, says Haig Stoddard, principal analyst–Forecasts, Wards Intelligence.
“March sales were proof that U.S. consumers are very much paying attention to tariffs, as demand on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis surged to 17.8 million units, highest for any month in nearly four years, and far above January-February’s combined total of 15.8 million,” Stoddard notes.
“Buyers flocking to dealer lots to beat potential price increases, combined with some pre-tariff push by automakers raising deliveries to fleet customers, lifted raw volume to over a four-year high, not to mention an 11% year-over-year gain,” he says.
Further, Stoddard says, “regardless of any coming impacts from tariffs, March’s booming results will cause lower volume in the second quarter due to the additional drain to dealer inventory that, based on industry norms, was already lean prior to the month.”
Many of those models providing sales impetus are built in Mexico or Canada, with some carrying the least-expensive sticker prices on the U.S. market. Automakers were careful to avoid the “T” word when explaining the sudden sales growth.
Price-conscious buyers may have driven major sales spikes for two low-priced, Mexico-built Nissan models, the Versa and Kicks, which posted year-over-year gains of 156% and 85%, respectively. The Nissan brand as a whole saw a 6.3% increase. But Nissan says non-tariff factors likely drove a wave of buyers to their local Nissan dealerships.
“We attribute increased sales to the value these models offer,” says Nissan spokeswoman Lloryn Love-Carter, pointing to standard features such as Safety Shield 360 and Intelligent AWD on models with low pricing. “Kicks and Versa are a part of a suite of six models that we have with a starting MSRP of under $30K,” she says.
Ford saw significant Q1 gains for three Mexico-built models, the Bronco Sport, Maverick small pickup and the Mach-E battery-electric utility vehicle. But it’s unclear whether a strong close for March was driven by tariff talk or a lineup of fresh vehicles, says Ford spokesman Said Deep.
“I do think there is some of that in the sales boost as March came in strong,” Deep says. “March was strong on the retail side.”
General Motors, which builds many of its most-popular models in Mexico, including the Equinox and Blazer CUVs and some Chevrolet Silverado pickups, reported a 17% Q1 gain, with Chevy posting its best sales since 2019 at 14%.
GM spokesman David Caldwell says its overall strong sales are a continuation of Q4 results, that “were on a strong trajectory throughout the quarter (not just in recent days). There's a consistent pattern of across-the-board growth.”
