N.A. Q2 Output Tally Up; Cars Benefit Most
Executive Summary
The industry’s latest North American output slate is higher by 21,000 units with cars counting for 89% of the increase.
After missing their April slate by a narrow margin, automakers have increased production in May and June enough to boost the second-quarter plan by 21,000 units, keeping the program on track toward a 2.3% gain compared with the same period a year ago.
The recently revised Q2 plan calls for the assembly of 4,799,800 cars and trucks in April-June, up from the 4,778,800 scheduled a month ago and the 4,690,000 built in like-2016.
Although trucks still make up 65% of output for the quarter, an increase of 18,700 cars accounts for the majority of the additional vehicles booked for production.
Trucks, on the other hand, are due for only a 2,300-unit net gain in the industry’s latest schedule, after falling short of plan by an estimated 12,300 units in April.
Overall, automakers have bumped up May and June plans by 21,600 and 11,700 units, respectively, for a total of 33,300 vehicles.
Cars, which finished April an estimated 100 units above plan, are set for increases of 14,700 in May and 3,900 in June, led by a 17,300-unit upturn in Ford’s actual second-quarter slate compared with earlier forecasts. The Ford increase is spread nearly evenly across all three months.
Likewise, Hyundai has scheduled an additional 11,000 car assemblies in the quarter, along with gains by Mazda, Subaru, Tesla and Toyota, for a combined 47,700 units.
However those gains were offset partially by cutbacks totaling 29,000 elsewhere, including a reduction of 10,700 at General Motors.
After an estimated 12,400-units April underbuild, an additional 14,700 trucks have been added to May and June schedules.
Five manufacturers have more trucks in their second-quarter plan than they did a month ago, ranging from increases of 12,500 units at Fiat Chrysler and 7,300 at Toyota to a mere 500 at GM.
Overall, the five producers, including Nissan and Tesla, have increased their Q2 output plans by 29,100 vehicles, of which 21,800 are set for production in May and June.
Elsewhere, 26,800 truck assemblies have been trimmed from Q2 plans, 3,200 of them among the dedicated medium- and heavy-duty truck makers.
The latest Q2 changes come on the heels of a final first-quarter count totaling 4,619,500 vehicles that ended 29,100 higher than the initial estimated of a month ago.
Based on current plans, first-half car and truck production will total 9,419,300 units, 2.0% more than the 9,236,500 vehicles turned out in January-June 2016.
For the period, FCA, Ford and GM are to slated build 98.6% of their prior-year volume, netting them a 49.3% output share, down from 50.9%.
Operating at 106.3% of year-ago, transplant automakers account for 49.1% of January-June output, up from 47.2% in like-2016, while dedicated big-truck makers have a 1.6% share this year as against 1.9% year-ago.
