DETROIT – Revolution or evolution?
A little of both, experts say, addressing the pace of technological development expected to occur in the transportation industry over the next 35 years.
It will be a revolution, they offer, evidenced by the explosion of connected-vehicle technology making cars and trucks more interactive with drivers, safer and more fuel efficient. But also evolutionary, because in the 130 years since Karl Benz put the first internal-combustion vehicle on the road oil remains the dominant fuel source and humans still are behind the wheel.
“Why has the industry not transformed?” asks Larry Burns, former head of global R&D at General Motors and now an independent business adviser.
Burns gives the annual SAE Congress in Detroit two primary reasons: the overwhelming popularity of personal transportation with some 1.2 billion internal-combustion-engine vehicles on roadways worldwide, and “vested interests” keen to maintain the status quo.
At the same time, however, factors such as a continued rise in population levels, expanding urbanization, the electronic-device boom and sustainability issues will compel the industry to refashion itself on a truncated, rather than extended, timeline, he says. Burns cites automaker fleet fuel economy, which between 2008 and 2015 grew 0.65 mpg annually. Looking ahead to 2025, when the fleet must achieve a federally mandated 54.5 mpg (4.3 L/100 km), annual gains must be achieved at a rate nearly three times greater.
“This is an enormous challenge,” Burns says.
The 2025 fuel-economy target is doubly difficult, he adds, because the ICE will remain the prevailing power source and regulations, not market demand, are driving automakers to offer alternative-propulsion technologies.
To make an historic transformation possible, Burns suggests the industry tap into talent on the cutting edge of technology, such as engineers dedicated to automated driving.
“You need people around you developing the state of the art,” says Burns, an advocate for the reinvention of the automobile and energy diversification for more than 45 years.
Burns also urges the industry to get in front of the inevitable by rethinking existing strategies and pursuing partnerships and alliances. But positive change will not come without the industry and governments working together to safely test new technologies on public roads, he says, claiming it could speed safety advancements and spare many of the 1.2 million people dying annually in traffic crashes.
“Accelerate it by one day, and you save 3,000 lives,” he says.
Justin Ward, general manager-Powertrain Systems Controls at Toyota Engineering and Manufacturing North America, agrees.
“We’re all going to have our hands in this activity,” says Ward, appearing here with Burns on a panel focused on the future of mobility in the 21st century.
High on Hydrogen
Ward says Toyota expects the future of transportation to be dominated one day by hybrids, plug-ins, battery-electric and fuel-cell vehicles.
FCEVs hold the most promise for carbon-free transportation, he says, and the cost-prohibitive nature of the technology is declining quickly. He points to the Toyota Mirai, an FCEV the automaker launched last year in Japan and the U.S. Ward says the car costs 1/20 of its prototype.
“But we think the cost reductions have just started,” he says, citing parts and vehicle production as two areas ripe for contraction.
But Toyota does not see the vehicle as the greatest potential for carbon-dioxide reductions in the industry. Assembly plants relying more heavily on alternative fuels such as hydrogen could slash emissions levels dramatically, and the automaker has a 2020 target for implementation of traditional and renewable power sources at one of its global facilities.
“We think this is a great demonstration of how we can reduce CO2 at the plant level,” he says.
Toyota also wants to reduce water usage at its facilities. A Toyota site in France has taken the first big step by collecting and storing rain water and then recycling it after use. Water use there has been cut 20%.
The automaker is finding new ways to recycle vehicles, too. For example, Toyota can recycle copper in wiring harnesses to 90% purity for reuse.
“There are all sorts of recycling ideas being implemented around the world at Toyota,” Ward says.
Bryan Pivovar, senior scientist-Fuel Cells at the National Renewable Energy Lab in Denver, tells SAE attendees the future will be hydrogen.
“It is inevitable,” he says, when all of the demands of transportation energy are taken into consideration. The single greatest demand is an Obama Admin. goal of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions 83% by 2050.
“That’s difficult,” says Pivovar, who leads 10 national labs on hydrogen research for transportation.
Pivovar says the future of transportation will be hydrogen-based because it can be made from a variety of sources and applied across industries. It also creates jobs, enhances national energy security and is tremendously efficient, he says.
Like Toyota’s Ward, he says it’s getting cheaper, too. The U.S. Department of Energy estimates fuel cell R&D costs will decline 80% by 2030.
Mike Ableson, vice president-Strategy and Global Portfolio Planning at General Motors, admits the auto industry, despite major technical advances, has not transformed itself since Karl Benz’s day.
But the irresistible combination of connectivity, autonomy and alternative transportation services will force dramatic change.
Just last year, Ableson says, GM’s Remote Link technology, which links devices with OnStar-equipped GM vehicles, saw 133 million interactions. Most were by the Millennial generation expected to take over a majority of car purchases from Baby Boomers.
“This is the sort of explosive growth you’ve heard talked about in the software industry but not in our industry,” he says.
Those levels of connectivity also are driving growth in the ride-sharing sector, where Lyft fulfills 85 million rides annually. GM invested $500 million in Lyft earlier this year to muscle into ride sharing.
However, Ableson and GM do not see the service replacing the traditional ownerships model. “But it creates opportunities going forward,” he says.
The safety benefits of autonomous cars cannot be denied, either, Ableson says, and electrification and lightweight materials are further compelling change.
“In a couple of decades we will see a much different industry than we do today.”
