Outlook

Bucking recent trends, the reduction in the first-quarter 2018 production outlook will result more from cuts in trucks, as well as in total output in Mexico.

U.S. demand will have to stay close to the 17 million-unit SAAR level early next year for inventory not to again become a problem of excess.

U.S. light-vehicle sales next year likely will resume the 16.8 million-unit annual pace, or lower, 2017 was tracking before the results of the previous two months lifted the year-end trajectory to 17 million.

Going into October, the industry was burdened with excess inventory of ’17 models, with dealer stocks an estimated 10% to 15% higher than necessary.

Despite announcements of temporary plant shutdowns and shift reductions, North American production still is expected to rise in Q1-2017.

There’s good chance automakers propel December above expectations by boosting incentives and advertising during the holiday period.

While capacity utilization in the U.S. and Canada will decline in 2017, Mexico’s facilities will increase to 104%.