Global Vehicle Sales Expected to Hit 100 Million in 2015
Executive Summary
J.D. Power forecasts U.S. sales at 14.1 million next year, with slow economic growth and high unemployment rates continuing to stand in the way of a full recovery.
LAS VEGAS – Global vehicle sales will soar to 100 million by 2015, says industry forecaster Jeff Schuster.
Worldwide deliveries will hit 75 million this year and 81 million in 2012, then take off “once we’ve worked through the economic issues,” says Schuster, J.D. Power and Associates’ executive director-global forecasting.
“There will be a huge increase in activity by 2015,” he says at a J.D. Power automotive conference here.
“Emerging markets will represent much of the accelerated growth.”
In India and Brazil, vehicle sales will hit 5 million in each market by 2015, he says.
China surpassed the U.S. in vehicle demand last year. That gap is expected to widen over the next three years, Schuster says, predicting China sales will total 17.7 million this year, compared with 12.6 million for the U.S.
He forecasts U.S. vehicle sales of 14.1 million next year. But slow economic growth and stubbornly high unemployment rates continue to impede a full recovery.
“Uncertainty is the name of the game in this long recovery, but we see things picking back up by 2013,” Schuster says.
He credits U.S. auto makers for not overproducing vehicles, a sin of the past. “The industry is managing supply to demand. That is extremely important.
The market has become much different in terms of cost levels and discipline.”
It makes for a healthy industry, even if sales are lower than in the boom years of the past decade.
But it “puts pressure on consumers looking for a deal,” because prices are higher and incentives lower, Schuster says.
