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March U.S. New-Vehicle Sales to Continue at Robust Rate

March U.S. New-Vehicle Sales to Continue at Robust Rate

New WardsAuto forecast calls for March sales to maintain recent 15.3 million SAAR.

Good economic news, seasonal trends and strong truck demand should keep March U.S. light-vehicle sales humming at February’s 15.3 million seasonally adjusted annual rate, a new WardsAuto forecast indicates.

U.S. auto makers are expected to sell 1.45 million cars and light trucks, for a projected 53,845-unit daily rate (over 27 selling days), a 7.7% improvement from year-ago (28 days).

The projected volume also marks a 3.8% gain compared with last March’s strong results.

A number of economic factors are playing a role in this month’s upbeat forecast, including data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics that show a rise in wages and spending in February. Unemployment dipped to 7.7%, the lowest jobless rate since December 2008.

In addition, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose 11.2 points in February, mimicking a rise in both the Board’s Present Situation and Expectation indices.

Housing demand, an historical bellwether for the auto industry, also gained momentum in February, when single-family housing starts reached their fastest pace since June 2008. Overall home sales outpaced year-ago levels for the 20th straight month and housing prices registered year-over-year gains for the 12th consecutive month.

The forecast DSR equates to an 8.8% improvement over February’s results, a sequential gain in line with last year’s February-to-March movement.

General Motors’ projected 260,000 deliveries would lift the auto maker’s DSR 16.3% over year-ago, giving it an 17.8% share of the market. GM’s results should reflect exceptionally strong truck sales, as the company continues to incentivize the sell-down of current-generation large pickups to clear dealer lots for the all-new models bowing later this year.

As a result, Ford likely will see its competing pickups cede some share this month, while its car sales will be hampered at least somewhat by low inventory of the all-new Fusion. Even so, WardsAuto looks for Ford to hold on to its February market share of 16%-plus. Volume sales of 236,000 LVs should increase its DSR 11.4% over strong-year ago results.

Chrysler is expected to lose share from prior-month levels, claiming more than 11% of the market on LV deliveries of 163,000 units. That would represent a 4.3% DSR improvement over like-2012, though GM’s truck initiative potentially could keep the lid on Chrysler’s share growth.

Honda is forecast to post a strong month as its new Accord gains traction in the market. The WardsAuto outlook calls for the auto maker to grab 9.5% of monthly sales, improving its daily volume 12.3% over year-ago with 137,000 deliveries.

Toyota, still playing a little above traditional levels in the fleet market, should increase its market share to 14.3% this month from 14% in February. Volume should reach 207,000 LVs, good for a 5.9% bump in DSR.

March historically is a strong month for Nissan, and the WardsAuto forecast calls for the auto maker to finish its fiscal year with nearly 9% of monthly deliveries, despite volume and DSR dipping from year-ago.

Hyundai-Kia’s daily sales and volume also are expected to slip below year-ago levels, with the South Korean brands grabbing 8.3% of the market on delivery of 121,000 vehicles.

The March forecast would bring industry first-quarter LV sales to 3.68 million units, a 6.5% improvement from year-ago.

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